Reading the result honestly

The assumptions that make the number optimistic.

The simulator lists its own assumptions on the page. Two of them matter more than the rest.

  • Days, or trades, are treated as independent. Streaks, tilt and regime are not modelled — and clustered losses hit a drawdown floor far more often than independent ones do.
  • The rules come from our research of the firm, not from the firm's system. Verify them before you buy.
Read the output as a comparison tool — this size against that size, this risk against that risk — rather than as a forecast. The ranking between two setups is far more trustworthy than the absolute percentage.

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